Macro Pulse
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The macro layer above individual stock triggers — regime, bull index, sector rotation, and the legal landscape.
As of Sunday, October 18, 2026
At 41.7 of 100, the market is showing more headwinds than tailwinds across the industries we track. Breadth is 17% — very few industries are participating. Materials Industrials and Energy are leading; Communications Media and Transportation lagging. The model lean is roughly flat over the next 30 days.
Cautious. At 41.7 of 100, the market is showing more headwinds than tailwinds across the industries we track. Breadth is 17% — very few industries are participating.
In plain terms: the Fed is on hold and growth is steady. That favors quality and cash-flow over speculative growth until the picture shifts.
Improving. The 30-day model lean moves from 41.7 to 42.3 — conditions look improving. This is a model lean, not a price target.
Confidence: low
1 sector flagged late-stage / reversal-risk.
26-week history with 30 / 60 / 90-day model projection. The dashed tail is a model lean, not a price target.
Directional read across 30 to 180 days, with badges for what changed today. Explanatory, not a price target.
In the current Mid-cycle / hawkish growth regime, the next 30 days look cautious. Confidence 77%, calibrated from 13 past mid_cycle windows.
In the current Mid-cycle / hawkish growth regime, the next 60 days look cautious. Confidence 79%, calibrated from 24 past mid_cycle windows.
In the current Mid-cycle / hawkish growth regime, the next 3 months look cautious. Confidence 88%, calibrated from 25 past mid_cycle windows.
In the current Mid-cycle / hawkish growth regime, the next 4 months look neutral. Confidence 81%, calibrated from 21 past mid_cycle windows.
In the current Mid-cycle / hawkish growth regime, the next 6 months look neutral. Confidence 75%, calibrated from 16 past mid_cycle windows.
The macro signals currently firing — the inputs behind the regime read. Showing 16 of 53.
Context provider, not a trading signal. The composite is not a standalone return predictor (path-aware Sharpe ~0.17); its one validated edge is the strong-tailwind bucket (composite ≥ 0.5). Use as macro context alongside fundamentals + valuation.